Power (to the extent that Irish Governments still have any) is collapsing.
Most TDs don’t want it. They all want office (which includes being a TD/Senator
and doesn’t have to involve being a Minister). Being a successful politician
today is not about changing things, delivering a new vision or anything of that kind. Eamon de Valera had the best part of a century to deliver the vision he
had for Ireland – an extraordinary privilege. A pity Michael Collins didn’t get the same
time.
Today’s politicians are entrepreneurs. Politics is a business like any
other. It has its risks and its rewards. The rewards are not the salary and
pension of a TD or senator (though they are not to be sneezed at) but the doors
that are opened to celebrity status, board membership, EU perks, joining the
rest of the elite who are richer than politicians, etc., etc. That has been the
pattern in Britain since, probably, the late 19th century. Before that, most
politicians were grandees or gentry of one kind or another. Since, give, or
take, the early 20th century a great many people who went into politics in
Britain as commoners ended up with peerages. They wanted to join the upper
class. Today, politics globally is a vehicle for the same kind of advancement,
and for little else. [Reading The Maiskey Diaries bears this out. At least 50% of the footnotes refer to
British politicians, who, the footnotes state, ended up getting peerages as in
“Joe Smth MP, the first Baron this”, or “Undersecretary Jones, the first
Viscount that”.]
Many of the smaller parties and independents in the 32nd Dail haven’t the slightest interest in
behaving responsibly, which involves taking power and wielding it with
discipline, which, in turn, involves a whip system for certain measures that must go through
the Dail. It also involves compromises, including moral compromises. The
principal planks in a government’s programme, if endorsed by its parliamentary
party(ies), should be delivered in a disciplined manner. However, Government
programmes should be short. They should be of the order of
“we will do the best we can” rather than sixty pages of promises that are then
delivered in a box ticking operation without regard to whether they should be
delivered or not. Matters of conscience and strictly parliamentary business
should of course not be whipped.
It is possible that we are inching towards a greater understanding of the
need to separate the rights of TDs as members of parliament from their
obligation to support a government programme to which they are committed (Kenny
might have lost fewer TDs if he had given his party a free vote on the suicide
abortion Bill). So, one step forward. However, it is very much a case of two
back as it is obvious that other than FF and FG no one wants to be in government.
That might sound contradictory but if you think about it, it isn’t. Many of the smaller parties and independents would have zero
credibility if they supported a government or, God forbid, joined one. They are
so extreme (in the sense of not being willing to recognize the harsh realities
of life) that any derogation from the absolute positions they adopt (100%
increase in government spending and the abolition of all taxes except for taxes on the
“wealthy” – who dey Gay?) would cause them to lose their seats and be
replaced by other headbangers. Their business model is built on adopting
positions from which there can be no retreat and no compromise. They created
that business model (or rather than fact that the Dail has 100 TDs too many
created it) and they know they will live or die by it.
So, we are left with FF and FG to form a government. They clearly can’t,
not this side of a May election but possibly after a May election, particularly
as FF will win more seats than FG and will claim the Taoiseach’s office. It is
critical, therefore, for FF that they are not blamed for causing a May election.
All of their jockeying for position is aimed at not being blamed for the next
election. I don’t know if FG has realized that.
An interesting final point: what happens to the Senate election if the Dail is
dissolved before the new Senate election is completed? No one seems to
know.
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