We pride ourselves on the fact that we don't have a first-past-the-post electoral system but, in reality, we do or a variation of it. In most three seat constituencies the candidates in the first three positions at the end of the first count in the 2011 general election were elected, with the same thing happening to the first four and five candidates in the four and five seat constituencies, respectively.
The candidates in the first three places at the end of the first count were elected in 15 of the 17 three seat constituencies. They were not all elected on the first count or in in the order in which they appeared at the end of the first count. In Dublin North East, two candidates (SF and FF) were ahead of the third candidate (the second successful Labour candidate) at the end of the first count but failed to be elected. Both candidates presumably failed to attract transfers, which is typical of SF candidates and was to be expected of FF candidates in 2011.
In 9 of the 15 four seat constituencies, the candidates in the first four places at the end of the first count were elected, again not all on the first count or in the order in which they appeared at the end of the first count. In the five of the remaining six constituencies, three of the first four candidates at the end of the first count were elected while two of the first four candidates at the end of the first count were elected in one constituency.
In 8 of the 11 five seat constituencies, the candidates in the first five places at the end of the first count were elected (again not all on the first count, etc.). In the other three constituencies, four of the first five placed candidates at the end of the first count were elected.
In most constituencies, a candidate who was in the first three, four or five positions (as appropriate) at the end of the first count but failed to be elected was beaten by a candidate who was not far behind him/her at the end of the first count (frequently five hundred votes or less). Only in Galway East where four candidates (two FG and two independents) were ahead of the final candidate to be elected (Labour) at the end of the first count was the result unusual.
The results have considerable significance for Labour, which like the Liberal Democrats in Britain last year, don't appear to realize they are going to be annihilated. Paddy Ashdown, a former leader of the Lib Dems, said he would eat his hat if the Lib Dems did badly but David Steel, a former Liberal leader, got it right the next day when he said that the Lib Dems lost 49 (I think) of their 57 seats not because of what they had done in government but because of the promises they broke to get into government. I expected the Lib Dems to be wiped out and I expect Labour to be down to between 0-10 seats after our election for the same reason that the Lib Dems were punished.
Unlike large parties, which have large numbers elected locally and nationally (thereby allowing those parties to remain in touch with the electorate), smaller parties quickly lose touch with their bases and their promises. They lose the run of themselves and become arrogant. Small parties suffer in coalition not because they are small but because (a) they make promises before the election that they should not make (the promises are not credible and the electorate knows that) and (b) they break promises that they should not break to get into office. Not surprisingly, the electorate has contempt for them and punishes them at the subsequent election. FF and FG are identical parties so it is unlikely that either party would have to break a significant promise to go into government with the other. Consequently, the smaller party should not suffer at the subsequent general election.
Three seat constituencies
The highest first preference vote received by a Labour candidate who did not secure election in the 2011 general election was 17.56% in Limerick. The Labour candidate was in fourth place at the end of the first count but was 3% behind the third placed candidate (FF). The lowest first preference vote secured by a successful Labour candidate in 2011 (the sole Labour candidate in the constituency) was 14.31% in Cork South West.
Four seat constituencies
The highest first preference vote won by a Labour candidate in a four seat constituency who failed to be elected in 2011 was 11.75% in Cork North Central. The candidate was in sixth place at the end of the first count, less than 1% behind the fourth candidate elected. The lowest first preference vote secured by a successful Labour candidate in 2011 was 7.18% in Galway East. He was one of two Labour candidates in that constituency.
Five seat constituencies
The highest first preference vote secured by an unsuccessful Labour candidate in 2011 was 8.21% in Dublin South Central. In Wicklow, two of the three Labour candidates failed to be elected (the two candidates had a combined first preference vote of 9.43%). Had Labour run just two candidates they might have won two seats. The lowest first preference vote secured by a successful Labour candidate in 2011 was 7.71% in Wicklow, where, as stated above, there were three Labour candidates.
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