The New Ireland Forum, the ESRI and Brexit

The recent ESRI publication on Brexit ("Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland") does not appear to include any references, in relation to North/South issues, to the work of the New Ireland Forum of the 1980s. The bibliography indeed contains only six references to 20th century publications -

- A 1998 publication on how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects economic growth
- A 1997 publication on the growth of FDI in Europe
- A 1996 publication on market share and exchange rate pass-through in world automobile trade
- A 1989 publication about tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition, and
- Two publications by the (current but not at the time) Governor of the Central Bank from 1982 and
  1984 on unemployment in Ireland.

Many of the publications cited in the bibliography appear to be by authors from outside Ireland with a strong emphasis on FDI. We have put so many eggs in the FDI basket that it has distorted our capacity to make good policy decisions in other areas.

The following documents published by the New Ireland Forum would appear to be relevant to the North/South aspects of Brexit but don't appear to have been examined by the ESRI:

- The Economic Consequences of the Division of Ireland since 1920
- A Comparative Description of the Economic Structure and Situation, North and South
- Integrated Policy and Planning for Transport in a New Ireland
- Opportunities for North/South Co-Operation in Energy
- An Analysis of Agricultural Developments in the North and South of Ireland and of the Effects of
   Integrated Policy and Planning, and
- The Macroeconomic Consequences of Integrated Economic Policy, Planning and Co-ordination in
   Ireland.

A great deal of work went into the preparation of those reports for what was a major national initiative (that led to the Anglo Irish Agreement (1985) and subsequently to the Downing Street Declaration and the Good Friday Agreement (both 1990s)). It seems strange that New Ireland Forum documents were not consulted during the preparation of the ESRI document, which states that all its Research Series reports are peer reviewed prior to publication. The ESRI report has a chapter on energy so it is particularly odd that the Forum research on energy is not cited. The authors of the report appear to have had contact with the Department of Finance but they don't say if they had contact with any other Department.

In addition to the New Ireland Forum, the authors don't appear to have consulted "Border Crossings, Developing Ireland's Island Economy", edited by Michael D'Arcy and Tim Dickson (1995), which includes a chapter by a (then) research professor at the ESRI, or Alan Gray's book (also 1995) "The Economic Consequences of Peace in Ireland". Nor does it mention the seminal Opsahl Report ("A Citizens' Inquiry, The Opsahl Report on Northern Ireland") edited by Andy Pollak (1993), which contains an important piece on the economy.

I haven't found any reference to the work of the Nordic Council either. The Nordic Council contains states that are (a) in the EU and the Eurozone, (b) in the EU but not the Eurozone and (c) in neither. The work of the Nordic Council would surely provide some guidance to how relations between Britain and Ireland could be managed in a situation where Brexit occurs.